Crude Oil update
I said in a blog on the 18th January, that the word from people in the North Sea was that they were upbeat about the oil situation. Perhaps they were right - it is too early to tell. The low oil prices brought Russia and Iran to their knees (and out-priced the fracking oil). The flip side of the coin for Saudi Arabia is that Venezuela and other OPEC countries would suffer. For Saudi Arabia this must be a delicate ballancing act. The fracking industry is not (yet) extinguished but Saudi's market share should have been restored in part atleast. They have also shown the world that they are capable of shutting down such industries as fracking (in America and the rest of the world) if they want to.
There are actually so many factors going on here that it is hard to predict where the price will go. Saudi may not want to return oil prices to their previous highs for a while but, will need to ease the problems which the low prices are causing the other OPEC countries.